par Haut, Benoît 
;Boey, Cédric ;Rigaut, Clément
Référence Sports Economics Review, 14, page (100071)
Publication Publié, 2026-04-07
;Boey, Cédric ;Rigaut, Clément Référence Sports Economics Review, 14, page (100071)
Publication Publié, 2026-04-07
Article révisé par les pairs
| Résumé : | The UEFA Champions League has undergone several format changes, affecting its competitive balance. This study compares four formats (group stage with 16 teams, 24 teams, and 32 teams, and the new format with the 36-team league phase) using simulations based on a match-outcome predictive model. All simulations rely on the clubs participating in the 2024-2025 league phase, together with their observed Elo ratings and squad market values, or on appropriate subsets thereof, thereby isolating the effect of tournament design at a given point in time. The results show that although the absolute number of clubs with a realistic chance of winning increases with tournament expansion, these clubs represent a declining fraction of the participants. The minimum squad market value associated with such a chance rises from about € 350 million in the 16-team format to around € 600 million in the 32- and 36-team formats. The first expansion, from 16 to 24 teams, sharply lowers the probability for champions of smaller leagues to reach advanced stages. Format changes also substantially modify the composition of matches, especially early in the competition: the average number of ‘prestige matches’ per evening increases from less than 0.4 in the 16-team format to about 2 in the new league phase. By contrast, the shift from 32 to 36 teams has only a marginal effect on qualification probabilities for the knockout stages, despite a large increase in the number of matches. Overall, tournament design has reinforced dominance of powerful clubs and reshaped timing and frequency of high-profile encounters. |
