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Ergodic seismic precursors and transfer learning for short term eruption forecasting at data scarce volcanoes

par Ardid, Alberto;Dempsey, David;Caudron, Corentin ;Cronin, Shane;Kennedy, Ben Mac B.;Girona, Társilo;Roman, Diana;Miller, Craig;Potter, Sally;Lamb, Oliver D.;Martanto, Anto;Çubuk-Sabuncu, Yeşim;Cabrera, Leoncio;Ruiz, Sergio;Contreras, Rodrigo;Pacheco, Javier;Mora, Mauricio M.M.;De Angelis, Silvio
Référence Nature communications, 16, 1, 1758
Publication Publié, 2025-12

Article révisé par les pairs

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Résumé :

Seismic data recorded before volcanic eruptions provides important clues for forecasting. However, limited monitoring histories and infrequent eruptions restrict the data available for training forecasting models. We propose a transfer machine learning approach that identifies eruption precursors—signals that consistently change before eruptions—across multiple volcanoes. Using seismic data from 41 eruptions at 24 volcanoes over 73 years, our approach forecasts eruptions at unobserved (out-of-sample) volcanoes. Tested without data from the target volcano, the model demonstrated accuracy comparable to direct training on the target and exceeded benchmarks based on seismic amplitude. These results indicate that eruption precursors exhibit ergodicity, sharing common patterns that allow observations from one group of volcanoes to approximate the behavior of others. This approach addresses data limitations at individual sites and provides a useful tool to support monitoring efforts at volcano observatories, improving the ability to forecast eruptions and mitigate volcanic risks.