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Crises, credit booms and monetary regime

par Ghallada, Youssef ;Girard, Alexandre;Oosterlinck, Kim
Référence Economics bulletin, 41, 3, page (1431-1443)
Publication Publié, 2021-03-01

Article révisé par les pairs

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Résumé :

In theory credit booms, and the crises associated to these booms, should occur more frequently in Fiat monetary regimes than in regimes, such as the Gold Standard, where money creation is constrained. In this note, we investigate whether the importance of the credit boom factor, as an early warning indicator (EWI) of systemic financial crises, varies across monetary regimes for a sample of 17 developed countries over the 1870-2016 period. We find no evidence of a difference between monetary regime for credit-driven crises and this both for the occurrence and the severity of crises.