par De Scheemaekere, Xavier ;Oosterlinck, Kim ;Szafarz, Ariane
Référence Financial history review, 22, 1, page (1-18)
Publication Publié, 2015-06
Article révisé par les pairs
Résumé : Economists have been blamed for their inability to forecast and address crises. This article attributes this inability to intertwined factors: the lack of a coherent definition of crises, the reference-class problem, the lack of imagination regarding the nature of future crises and sample-selection biases. Specifically, economists tend to adapt their views on crises to recent episodes, and omit averted and potential crises. Threshold-based definitions of crises run the risk of being ad hoc. Using historical examples, this article highlights some epistemological shortcomings of the current approach.