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THE IMPACT OF FARM DISTRIBUTION PATTERNS AND INTENSIFICATION SCENARIOS ON DISEASE RISKS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: A SPATIAL POINT PROCESSES MODELLING APPROACH

par Borguet, Pauline
Promoteur Dellicour, Simon
Co-Promoteur Dupas, Marie-Cécile
Publication Non publié, 2024-08-28

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Résumé :

The study addresses the rising demand for poultry in low- and middle-income countries like Bangladesh, leading to intensified production and associated health risks. Due to challenges in collecting farm data, the "One Health Poultry Hub" developed models to simulate farm distributions and epidemic spread. We examine how changes in the clustering of poultry farms affect epidemic spread. The FDM uses a Log Gaussian Cox Process (LGCP) to generate farm distributions based on spatial predictors and a Random Forest model to assign farm capacity. We modified the variance and scale parameters of the LGCP to observe their impact on farm clustering.By adjusting clustering parameters, we found that higher clustering of poultry farms increases vulnerability to epidemics, particularly for pathogens spreading over short distances. This study highlights the importance of spatial analysis and suggests further research on poultry farming intensification in South-East Asia.