Mémoire
| Résumé : | This paper focuses on the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan’s political stability. More specifically, it seeks to understand which factors have influenced this political stability, and to what extent, for the years 2000–2019. For this purpose, it proposes a comparative study of five potential factors taken from the scientific literature: 1) political freedoms and civil liberties, 2) corruption, 3) unemployment, 4) the political stability of the neighbourhood, and 5) the amount of foreign aid received. The analysis starts with a regression analysis, which does not yield statistically significant results, except for the political stability of the neighbourhood, which is found to have a positive relationship with the political stability of Jordan. One time-series graph per variable is then computed, whereby three periods of greater political instability are identified and analyzed by comparing the graphs to unearth the reasons behind the instability during the said periods. The results find that the political stability of Jordan is indeed positively correlated to the political stability of its neighbourhood until the latter reaches a critical bottom, after which the relationship is somewhat inverted, with the stability of Jordan rising sharply while that of the vicinity hovers around very low values. The amount of foreign aid received by the country, for its part, is found to possibly also have a positive relationship with Jordan’s political stability, although this relationship is less systematic. The three other factors are found to affect Jordan’s political stability in a nonlinear nor predictable way which highly depends on an array of other parameters and circumstances. |
