Publication dans des actes
|The blackout risk in power systems is difficult to estimate by actualprobabilistic methods because they usually neglect, or do not properlyconsider, the dependencies between failures and the dynamic evolution ofthe grid in the course of a transient. Our purpose is therefore to developan integrated probabilistic approach to blackout analysis, capable ofhandling the coupling between events in cascading failure, and the dynamicresponse of the grid to stochastic initiating perturbations. This approachis adapted from dynamic reliability methodologies. This paper focuses onthe modeling adopted for the first phase of a blackout, ruled by thermaltransients. The goal is to identify underestimated dangerous cascadingscenarios and better calculate their frequency. A Monte Carlo codespecifically developed for this purpose is validated on a test grid. Somedangerous scenarios are presented and their frequency calculated by thismethod is compared with a classical estimation, showing importantdifferences.