Travail de recherche/Working paper
Résumé : In this paper we analyze the problem of population ageing in terms of non-medical care needs of persons who are dependent or have lost their autonomy, in order to provide the various public and private administrations active in these fields with some food for thought. The anticipated increase in dependency poses significant challenges in terms of needs evolution and financing. Using administrative data on the Belgian population to build indicators on the prevalence of dependency at home in the three regions in 2001, we find that the likelihood of a sustained increase in the Flemish prevalence rates ultimately amplifies the magnitude of the financing problems that the Flemish dependency insurance scheme has experienced since its first years of operation. Results also show that the smaller increases or the decreases (according to the scenario selected) expected in Wallonia and Brussels are likely to mitigate concern about the sustainability of any long-term care insurance in Wallonia and therefore to facilitate its eventual introduction.