par Raspoet, Olivia 
;Pattyn, Frank
Référence 12th SCAR Open Science Conference & Meetings(8-19 August 2026: Oslo, Norway)
Publication Non publié, 2026-08-14
;Pattyn, Frank Référence 12th SCAR Open Science Conference & Meetings(8-19 August 2026: Oslo, Norway)
Publication Non publié, 2026-08-14
Abstract de conférence
| Résumé : | The thermal regime of the Antarctic Ice Sheet impacts to a large extent critical ice-dynamical processes, such as ice deformation, basal sliding, and subglacial hydrology, thereby modulating ice-stream dynamics and potential contemporary and future rates of ice mass loss. Due to the scarcity of direct observations of subglacial environments, continental-scale estimates of basal thermal conditions are primarily derived from ice thermodynamic models, whose predictions are hindered by uncertainties in the representation of physical processes, model parameters, and boundary conditions. Among these, geothermal heat flow remains particularly poorly constrained, with existing datasets displaying substantial variability in both magnitude and spatial distribution. This variability results in divergent predictions of basal temperatures and subglacial meltwater production. Here, we gauge the sensitivity of Antarctic subglacial conditions to multiple sources of uncertainty in an ensemble modelling framework. Model results are further compared with observational constraints, including borehole temperature measurements associated with deep ice core drillings, satellite-derived englacial temperatures, and the spatial distribution of subglacial lakes. Finally, we evaluate geothermal heat flow datasets in terms of the best fit between ice-sheet model predictions and observations and provide recommendations for an improved representation of basal thermal and hydrological conditions in future Antarctic ice-sheet simulations. |
