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Contested Ownership, Negative Tone: How Issue Ownership Competition Fuels Online Negativity in Belgium

par Kins, Lucas ;Jacobs, Laura ;Close, Caroline
Référence Government and opposition
Publication A Paraître, 2026-07-01

Article révisé par les pairs

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Résumé :

To gain support, political actors must be visible on issues where they are seen as credible and advance these issues on the agenda. Direct online communication and negative messaging can amplify this by gaining traction on social media. While prior research assumes parties attack competitors on issues they ‘own’, we test that assumption in a highly fragmented multi-party system where ownership is fiercely contested. Here, attacks may aim to compete for ownership rather than defend it. Analysing 27,266 posts on X by Belgian party actors over two-and-a-half years, we find that sender issue ownership alone does not predict issue-based attacks. Instead, competition over ownership, especially at the target level, shapes attack patterns. During campaigns, issue-based attacks are significantly more likely to target issue owners than during routine periods. By linking issue competition and negative campaigning, we offer new insights into communication dynamics in fragmented party systems across the electoral cycle.