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Pathways to net zero: Scenario analyses of urban building stocks in Jakarta

par Hanif, Hanif ;Khan, Ahmed Z. ;Alhamid, Muhammad Idrus;Yamaguchi, Yohei
Référence Energy and buildings, 353, 116919
Publication Publié, 2025-12-28

Article révisé par les pairs

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Résumé :

Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 in Jakarta requires a clearly designed pathway. To support this, the study explores both forecasting and backcasting analyses for urban building stocks. The goal is to develop a net-zero pathway using novel methods that incorporate stakeholder scenarios and address both operational and embodied emissions. Strategic interactions are modeled among five key players: the Ministry of Finance (MoF), the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), the Government of Jakarta (GovJ), building owners/occupants (OCC), and developers (DEV). The building stock types analyzed include apartments, offices, malls, hotels, educational facilities, hospitals, and landed houses. The analysis integrates the Prophet Forecasting Model (PFM) with Evolutionary Game Theory (EGT), including ±10% sensitivity tests, and applies three decay models (logistic, power, and Gompertz) for backcasting. Energy Use Intensity (EUI), its components such as cooling systems, lighting, equipment, appliances; parameters like Overall Thermal Transfer Value (OTTV) and Coefficient of Performance (CoP); and associated emission factors for electricity, materials, and fuels were evaluated under scenarios for 2030, 2040, and 2050. Scenarios with the –10% sensitivity yield better forecasting accuracy, indicating that cooperative strategies may require external support, such as international financial institutions, to improve outcomes. Additionally, under the +10% sensitivity scenario, projected 2050 emissions could return to 2010 levels.