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Uncertainty quantification of radiative heat flux modeling for Titan atmospheric entry

par Ghaffari, Shirin;Magin, Thierry ;Iaccarino, Gianluca
Référence 48th AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting Including the New Horizons Forum and Aerospace Exposition(48: 2010), American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics
Publication Publié, 2010

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Résumé :

We present an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis applied to a thermo-chemical model of radiative heat loads on a capsule entering the Titan atmosphere. A one-dimensional model for the computation of the gas conditions downstream of the vehicle's bow shock is used to replace expensive CFD field simulations. The CN concentration in the shock layer is computed and fed into a simplified model for the radiative heat flux. The input reaction rates are assumed to be known only approximatively and characterized in a probabilistic framework; we perform Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the relative ranking of the various uncertainty sources. We show that linear correlation and non-linear variance decomposition techniques can lead to different estimates of the relative importance of the reaction rates uncertainties.