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From short-term uncertainties to long-term certainties in the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

par Klose, Ann Kristin;Coulon, Violaine ;Edwards, Tamsin L;Turner, Fiona;Pattyn, Frank ;Winkelmann, Ricarda
Référence EGU General Assembly 2025
Publication Non publié, 2025-04-30

Communication à un colloque

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Résumé :

The future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with progressing warming constitutes one of the, if not the main uncertainty in projections of future sea-level change. As the largest potential source of sea-level rise and one of the key tipping elements in the climate system, robust projections are needed to inform coastal adaptation planning worldwide.Using historically-calibrated perturbed-parameter ensembles of projections with two ice-sheet models, we assess the response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and associated uncertainties to a wide range of climate futures extending to the year 2300 and beyond.We show that the near-term projections of the Antarctic Ice Sheet are strongly influenced by ice-sheet model sensitivities, especially under limited warming, until strong changes in Antarctic climate beyond the end of the century, as projected under unmitigated emissions, clearly dominate the ice-sheet evolution. Irrespective of the wide range of uncertainties explored in our ensembles, large-scale ice loss is triggered in both West and East Antarctica under higher warming scenarios, but can be avoided by reaching net-zero emissions well before 2100. This leads to a multi-meter difference in the committed Antarctic sea-level contribution projected under low and very high emission pathways by the end of the millennium. Our results suggest that the next years and decades are decisive for the multi-centennial fate of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.