par de Winter, Niels N.J.;Tindall, Julia;Johnson, Andrew A.L.A.;Goudsmit-Harzevoort, Barbara;Wichern, Nina N.M.A.;Kaskes, Pim 
;Claeys, Philippe;Huygen, Fynn;van Leeuwen, Sonja;Metcalfe, Brett;Bakker, Pepijn;Goolaerts, Stijn;Wesselingh, Frank;Ziegler, Martin
Référence Science advances, 10, 20, eadl6717
Publication Publié, 2024-05-01
;Claeys, Philippe;Huygen, Fynn;van Leeuwen, Sonja;Metcalfe, Brett;Bakker, Pepijn;Goolaerts, Stijn;Wesselingh, Frank;Ziegler, MartinRéférence Science advances, 10, 20, eadl6717
Publication Publié, 2024-05-01
Article révisé par les pairs
| Résumé : | Documenting the seasonal temperature cycle constitutes an essential step toward mitigating risks associated with extreme weather events in a future warmer world. The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP), 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago, featured global temperatures approximately 3°C above preindustrial levels. It represents an ideal period for directed paleoclimate reconstructions equivalent to model projections for 2100 under moderate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5. Here, seasonal clumped isotope analyses of fossil mollusk shells from the North Sea are presented to test Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project 2 outcomes. Joint data and model evidence reveals enhanced summer warming (+4.3° ± 1.0°C) compared to winter (+2.5° ± 1.5°C) during the mPWP, equivalent to SSP2-4.5 outcomes for future climate. We show that Arctic amplification of global warming weakens mid-latitude summer circulation while intensifying seasonal contrast in temperature and precipitation, leading to an increased risk of summer heat waves and other extreme weather events in Europe’s future. |
