par Panzano, Guido 
;Tomini, Luca
Référence American Political Science Association General Conference, European Consortium for Political Research General Conference, and Italian Political Science Association General Conference (Los Angeles, Prague, and Genoa; the paper will be submitted in February 2024)
Publication Non publié, 2023-09-08
;Tomini, Luca Référence American Political Science Association General Conference, European Consortium for Political Research General Conference, and Italian Political Science Association General Conference (Los Angeles, Prague, and Genoa; the paper will be submitted in February 2024)
Publication Non publié, 2023-09-08
Communication à un colloque
| Résumé : | Autocratization has become the prevailing trend in recent political regime developments. Scholars are now increasingly addressing the global decline in democracy through both conceptual and empirical analyses to understand how autocratization initiates, unfolds, and can be halted. However, we contend that there is still a lack of comprehensive examinations that specifically elucidate the diverse outcomes of autocratization processes. In particular, we aim to determine the conditions under which autocratization can either lead or not lead to a regime change. Furthermore, we seek to discern the role played by actors of resistance against autocratization in influencing these outcomes. This article employs cutting-edge tools of Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to scrutinize recent episodes of autocratization that commenced in democracies or semi-democracies between 1993 and 2022. We achieve this by pairing information from existing expert surveys and expert-coded data. Our specific interest lies in explaining autocratization episodes that do not culminate in regime change, meaning they do not result in democratic regression or democratic breakdown. Departing from the existing small-N literature, we assess the significance of actor-based conditions of resistance against autocratization, dividing them into these macro-areas: (1) the checks and balances provided by institutional bodies like the judiciary and (2) the legislature; (3) the actions of opposition political parties through electoral alliances and coalitions; (4) the internal divisions within the incumbent party elite; the occurrence of civil society's (5) nonviolent or (6) violent protests; and (7) the intervention of external actors. To these conditions of resistance, we also incorporate whether a country possesses stable liberal-democratic institutions (8) and the overall duration of the autocratization episode (9). Our findings reveal five distinct configurations regarding the role of resistance actors that seem to be causally linked to the absence of a regime change during an autocratization episode. Our results underscore the pivotal role of nonviolent protests, judicial resistance, external pressure, and incumbent divisions. To further substantiate these findings, we subject them to a battery of QCA robustness tests. |
