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The socioeconomic effects of conflicts and disasters

par Alamir, Anousheh
Président du jury Gassner, Marjorie
Promoteur Gobbi, Paula Eugenia
Publication Non publié, 2023-05-22

Thèse de doctorat

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Résumé :

This thesis analyses the socioeconomic repercussions of armed conflicts and natural disasters. Calculating the consequences of global public bads helps uncover the scale, distribution, and structure of their socioeconomic burden. State-of-the art causal inference methodologies are used to ensure the validity of the results. Both short- and long-term effects are explored, by considering various generations and indicators. The first chapter sets out to measure the global cost of all the major armed conflicts that took place in the world between 1970 and 2014. A counterfactual analysis shows that had there been no such conflicts throughout those decades, global GDP would have been 12% higher in 2014. The largest absolute losses associated with violence emanate from Asia, while many highincome economies are found to benefit economically from participating in conflicts on foreign soil. The second chapter compares the effects of the two main types of natural disasters that exist: geological and climatic disasters. Given its wide geographical variety, Mexico is used for this study, and educational attainment amongst 17 and 18-year-olds is used to capture the potential long-term effects of these shocks. Climatic disasters are found to have the worst effect, and the difference between the two is most pronounced in highly urbanized municipalities. Finally, the third chapter analyses the spillovers of public violence on intimate partner violence (IPV). Focusing on Mexico, the study finds that municipalities that saw an upsurge in conflict-related homicides since 2007 also experienced an average rise of 8 to 12% in the share of surveyed women who declared having experienced IPV. This result is mostly found amongst women with fewer options outside marriage, as measured by lower income, educational attainment, and decision-making power within their household. The thesis thus shows how younger generations, women, and economies as a whole can be affected by conflicts and disasters. By exploring the channels behind the results, the three studies provide policy suggestions to reduce these repercussions.