Travail de recherche/Working paper
| Résumé : | This paper examines the effect of trade-induced changes in Mexican labor demand on population growth and migration responses at the local level. I exploit cross-municipality variation in exposure to a change in trade policy between the U.S. and China that differentially exposed Mexican municipalities based on their industry structure. In the five years following the change in trade policy, most exposed municipalities exhibit increased population growth, driven by declines in out-migration. Conversely, six to ten years after the change in trade policy, exposure to increased trade competition is associated with decreased population growth, driven by declines in in-migration and returned migration rates, and increased out-migration. I show that accounting for changes in population growth and migration is relevant to analyze the effect of employment shocks on outcomes that are calculated using population estimates, such as mortality rates. I show that results in the recent literature are sensitive to these population adjustments. |
