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Probabilistic Transmission Expansion Planning: On the effects of outcome variability on decision-making

par Willems, Sander ;Labeau, Pierre-Etienne ;Maun, Jean Claude ;Vergnol, A. A.V.;Sprooten, Jonathan
Référence ESREL2019, Proceedings of the 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference., Michael Beer and Enrico Zio
Publication Publié, 2019

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Résumé :

As the system on which decisions are made evolves, the used criteria and decision-making approaches must evolve with it. The increasing share of renewable and less price sensitive energy generation has decreased the predictability of energy flows on the electrical transmission grid. This has resulted in efforts for deploying probabilistic criteria which allow taking this indeterminacy into account. As the outcome of a decision for a system whose future state is based on a probability distribution is a probability distribution itself, there is no longer a deterministic outcome to base decisions on. Several ways to deal with this distribution exist (average, shortfall etc.). Each of these approaches has its value within a certain context related to among other things the timescale, variability and absolute value of the outcomes. As probabilistic indicators are added to the decision-making process, several situations have been identified where it is not immediately clear how to strike the balance between optimizing the average while reducing the variability of the outcome. In this work two of these cases are subjected to a probabilistic study and it is shown how changing the decision time-horizon and/or outcome variability could lead to a different decision. The paper concludes with future prospects and the next steps that are to be taken to ensure the validity of decisions made using a well-chosen decision-making approach that enables the optimal use of the potential of probabilistic criteria.