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Hybrid Voters: How the Politics in the Home and the New Country Influences External Voters

par Ognibene, Marco ;Paulis, Emilien
Référence Representation, page (1-20)
Publication Publié, 2021-09-26

Article révisé par les pairs

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Résumé :

Based on 20 years of election data gathered for 6 European countries, this article analyses how the non-resident citizens vote from abroad in the elections of their origin country. Our mediation model demonstrates that the external vote share of a party is dependent on the support for this party in the homecountry before the election and the support registered for ideologically close parties in the new country of residence at the same moment. Our results put thus forward that external voting choices are hybrid: they mostly reflect the political context of their ‘home’ origin country, but also mirror politics in the ‘new’ country of residence. Furthermore, the article shows that the link between incumbency and the share taken by a party among the external community is not direct but mediated by how much is this party supported in the home-country, and how much ideologically similar parties are supported in the host-country. This finding further confirms that the flow of public opinion in the home and the new country both shape the choices that are made by external voters.