Article révisé par les pairs
Résumé : Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

Documents en relation

DI-fusion

  • Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty
    par Seroussi, Helene , Verjans, Vincent , Nowicki, Sophie , Payne, Antony J. , Goelzer, Heiko , Lipscomb, William H. , Abe-Ouchi, Ayako , Agosta, Cecile , Albrecht, Torsten , Asay-Davis, Xylar , Barthel, Alice , Calov, Reinhard , Cullather, Richard , Dumas, Christophe , Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. , Gladstone, Rupert R.M. , Golledge, Nicholas R. , Gregory, Jonathan M. , Greve, Ralf , Hattermann, Tore , Hoffman, Matthew J. , Humbert, Angelika , Huybrechts, Philippe , Jourdain, Nicolas C. , Kleiner, Thomas , Larour, Eric , Leguy, Gunter R. , Lowry, Daniel P. , Little, Chistopher M. , Morlighem, Mathieu , Pattyn, Frank , Pelle, Tyler , Price, Stephen F. , Quiquet, Aurelien , Reese, Ronja , Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne , Shepherd, Andrew , Simon, Erika , Smith, Robin R.S. , Straneo, Fiammetta , Sun, Sainan , Trusel, Luke D. , Van Breedam, Jonas , Van Katwyk, Peter , van de Wal, Roderik S W , Winkelmann, Ricarda , Zhao, Chen , Zhang, Tong , Zwinger, Thomas
    Publication 2023-12-01
  • ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century
    par Seroussi, Helene , Nowicki, Sophie , Payne, Antony J. , Goelzer, Heiko , Lipscomb, William H. , Abe-Ouchi, Ayako , Agosta, Cecile , Albrecht, Torsten , Asay-Davis, Xylar , Barthel, Alice , Calov, Reinhard , Cullather, Richard , Dumas, Christophe , Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. , Gladstone, Rupert R.M. , Golledge, Nicholas R. , Gregory, Jonathan M. , Greve, Ralf , Hattermann, Tore , Hoffman, Matthew J. , Humbert, Angelika , Huybrechts, Philippe , Jourdain, Nicolas C. , Kleiner, Thomas , Larour, Eric , Leguy, Gunter R. , Lowry, Daniel P. , Little, Chistopher M. , Morlighem, Mathieu , Pattyn, Frank , Pelle, Tyler , Price, Stephen F. , Quiquet, Aurelien , Reese, Ronja , Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne , Shepherd, Andrew , Simon, Erika , Smith, Robin R.S. , Straneo, Fiammetta , Sun, Sainan , Trusel, Luke D. , Van Breedam, Jonas , van de Wal, Roderik S W , Winkelmann, Ricarda , Zhao, Cheng , Zhang, Tong , Zwinger, Thomas
    Publication 2020-09-01
  • The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
    par Goelzer, Heiko , Nowicki, Sophie , Payne, Anthony , Larour, Eric , Seroussi, Helene , Lipscomb, William H. , Gregory, Jonathan , Abe-Ouchi, Ayako , Shepherd, Andrew , Simon, Erika , Agosta, Cecile , Alexander, Patrick , Aschwanden, Andy , Barthel, Alice , Calov, Reinhard , Chambers, Christopher , Choi, Youngmin , Cuzzone, Joshua , Dumas, Christophe , Edwards, Tamsin L , Felikson, Denis , Fettweis, Xavier , Golledge, Nicholas R. , Greve, Ralf , Humbert, Angelika , Huybrechts, Philippe , Le clec'h, Sebastien , Lee, Victoria , Leguy, Gunter , Little, Chris , Lowry, Daniel P. , Morlighem, Mathieu , Nias, Isabel , Quiquet, Aurelien , Rückamp, Martin , Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne , Slater, Donald A. , Smith, Robin R.S. , Straneo, Fiamma , Tarasov, Lev , van de Wal, Roderik S W , Van den Broeke, Michiel
    Publication 2020-09-01
  • Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble
    par Seroussi, Helene , Pelle, Tyler , Lipscomb, William H. , Abe-Ouchi, Ayako , Albrecht, Torsten , Alvarez‐Solas, Jorge , Asay‐Davis, Xylar , Barre, Jean‐Baptiste , Berends, Constantijn J. , Bernales, Jorge , Blasco Navarro, Javier , Caillet, Justine , Chandler, David , Coulon, Violaine , Cullather, Richard , Dumas, Christophe , Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K. , Garbe, Julius , Gillet‐Chaulet, Fabien , Gladstone, Rupert R.M. , Goelzer, Heiko , Golledge, Nicholas , Greve, Ralf , Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar , Han, Holly Kyeore , Hillebrand, Trevor , Hoffman, Matthew J. , Huybrechts, Philippe , Jourdain, Nicolas C. , Klose, Ann Kristin , Langebroek, Petra , Leguy, Gunter R. , Lowry, Daniel P. , Mathiot, Pierre , Montoya, Marisa , Morlighem, Mathieu , Nowicki, Sophie , Pattyn, Frank , Payne, Antony J. , Quiquet, Aurelien , Reese, Ronja , Robinson, Alexander , Saraste, Leopekka , Simon, Erika G. , Sun, Sainan , Twarog, Jake , Trusel, Luke D. , Urruty, Benoit , Van Breedam, Jonas , van de Wal, Roderik S W , Wang, Yu , Zhao, Chen , Zwinger, Thomas
    Publication 2024-09-01
  • Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise
    par Edwards, Tamsin L , Nowicki, Sophie , Marzeion, Ben , Hock, Regine , Goelzer, Heiko , Seroussi, Hélène , Jourdain, Nicolas C. , Slater, Donald A. , Turner, Fiona , Smith, Christopher J. , McKenna, Christine , Simon, Erika , Abe-Ouchi, Ayako , Gregory, Jonathan M. , Larour, Eric , Lipscomb, William H. , Payne, Antony J. , Shepherd, Andrew , Agosta, Cécile , Alexander, Patrick , Albrecht, Torsten , Anderson, Brian , Asay-Davis, Xylar , Aschwanden, Andy , Barthel, Alice , Bliss, Andrew , Calov, Reinhard , Chambers, Christopher , Champollion, Nicolas , Choi, Youngmin , Cullather, Richard , Cuzzone, Joshua , Dumas, Christophe , Felikson, Denis , Fettweis, Xavier , Fujita, Koji , Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. , Gladstone, Rupert R.M. , Golledge, Nicholas R. , Greve, Ralf , Hattermann, Tore , Hoffman, Matthew J. , Humbert, Angelika , Huss, Matthias , Huybrechts, Philippe , Immerzeel, Walter Willem (Walter) W.W. , Kleiner, Thomas , Kraaijenbrink, Philip , Le clec’h, Sébastien , Lee, Victoria , Leguy, Gunter R. , Little, Christopher M. , Lowry, Daniel P. , Malles, Jan Hendrik , Martin, Daniel F. , Maussion, Fabien , Morlighem, Mathieu , O’Neill, James F. , Nias, Isabel , Pattyn, Frank , Pelle, Tyler , Price, Stephen F. , Quiquet, Aurélien , Radić, Valentina , Reese, Ronja , Rounce, David Robert , Rückamp, Martin , Sakai, Akiko , Shafer, Courtney , Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne , Shannon, Sarah , Smith, Robin R.S. , Straneo, Fiammetta , Sun, Sainan , Tarasov, Lev , Trusel, Luke D. , Van Breedam, Jonas , van de Wal, Roderik S W , Van den Broeke, Michiel , Winkelmann, Ricarda , Zekollari, Harry , Zhao, Cheng , Zhang, Tong , Zwinger, Thomas
    Publication 2021-05