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A crisis of representativeness? Comparative analysis of congruence between parties and their electorate in the 2019 regional election in Flanders.

par Kins, Lucas
Référence the State of the Federation 2020 (Gent)
Publication Non publié, 2020-12-17

Communication à un colloque

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Résumé :

The policy positions and priorities of voters have become central in explaining electoral behaviour, to the detriment of traditional party affiliation. In Flanders, this has contributed to the rise of “new parties” and the demise of the three mainstream parties, whose convergence weakened their ideological profile. Using data from the RepResent electoral survey, we compare how representative the different parties were of the opinions of their electorate for the May 2019 regional election in Flanders, using two measurements of congruence: overall congruence and congruence on salient issues. Our research shows that two of the three traditional parties (the CD&V and the Open VLD) have some of the lowest scores on both types of measurements, while the situation of the SP.A is ultimately contrary to what we expected. Our results reveal that the party is in fact the most representative of the positions of its electorate, all parties combined. It is also more representative of the voters of its left-wing rivals (Groen and Pvda) than the party of their choice, showing that the SP.A struggles to create enthusiasm for a program that is nevertheless in line with the demands of progressive voters, and – to some extent – those in the centre.