Article révisé par les pairs
Résumé : Abstract Antarctica's ice shelves modulate the grounded ice flow, and weakening of ice shelves due to climate forcing will decrease their ‘buttressing’ effect, causing a response in the grounded ice. While the processes governing ice-shelf weakening are complex, uncertainties in the response of the grounded ice sheet are also difficult to assess. The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP) compares ice-sheet model responses to decrease in buttressing by investigating the ‘end-member’ scenario of total and sustained loss of ice shelves. Although unrealistic, this scenario enables gauging the sensitivity of an ensemble of 15 ice-sheet models to a total loss of buttressing, hence exhibiting the full potential of marine ice-sheet instability. All models predict that this scenario leads to multi-metre (1–12 m) sea-level rise over 500 years from present day. West Antarctic ice sheet collapse alone leads to a 1.91–5.08 m sea-level rise due to the marine ice-sheet instability. Mass loss rates are a strong function of the sliding/friction law, with plastic laws cause a further destabilization of the Aurora and Wilkes Subglacial Basins, East Antarctica. Improvements to marine ice-sheet models have greatly reduced variability between modelled ice-sheet responses to extreme ice-shelf loss, e.g. compared to the SeaRISE assessments.

Documents en relation

DI-fusion

  • Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty
    par Seroussi, Helene , Verjans, Vincent , Nowicki, Sophie , Payne, Antony J. , Goelzer, Heiko , Lipscomb, William H. , Abe-Ouchi, Ayako , Agosta, Cecile , Albrecht, Torsten , Asay-Davis, Xylar , Barthel, Alice , Calov, Reinhard , Cullather, Richard , Dumas, Christophe , Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. , Gladstone, Rupert R.M. , Golledge, Nicholas R. , Gregory, Jonathan M. , Greve, Ralf , Hattermann, Tore , Hoffman, Matthew J. , Humbert, Angelika , Huybrechts, Philippe , Jourdain, Nicolas C. , Kleiner, Thomas , Larour, Eric , Leguy, Gunter R. , Lowry, Daniel P. , Little, Chistopher M. , Morlighem, Mathieu , Pattyn, Frank , Pelle, Tyler , Price, Stephen F. , Quiquet, Aurelien , Reese, Ronja , Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne , Shepherd, Andrew , Simon, Erika , Smith, Robin R.S. , Straneo, Fiammetta , Sun, Sainan , Trusel, Luke D. , Van Breedam, Jonas , Van Katwyk, Peter , van de Wal, Roderik S W , Winkelmann, Ricarda , Zhao, Chen , Zhang, Tong , Zwinger, Thomas
    Publication 2023-12-01
  • Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble
    par Seroussi, Helene , Pelle, Tyler , Lipscomb, William H. , Abe-Ouchi, Ayako , Albrecht, Torsten , Alvarez‐Solas, Jorge , Asay‐Davis, Xylar , Barre, Jean‐Baptiste , Berends, Constantijn J. , Bernales, Jorge , Blasco Navarro, Javier , Caillet, Justine , Chandler, David , Coulon, Violaine , Cullather, Richard , Dumas, Christophe , Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K. , Garbe, Julius , Gillet‐Chaulet, Fabien , Gladstone, Rupert R.M. , Goelzer, Heiko , Golledge, Nicholas , Greve, Ralf , Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar , Han, Holly Kyeore , Hillebrand, Trevor , Hoffman, Matthew J. , Huybrechts, Philippe , Jourdain, Nicolas C. , Klose, Ann Kristin , Langebroek, Petra , Leguy, Gunter R. , Lowry, Daniel P. , Mathiot, Pierre , Montoya, Marisa , Morlighem, Mathieu , Nowicki, Sophie , Pattyn, Frank , Payne, Antony J. , Quiquet, Aurelien , Reese, Ronja , Robinson, Alexander , Saraste, Leopekka , Simon, Erika G. , Sun, Sainan , Twarog, Jake , Trusel, Luke D. , Urruty, Benoit , Van Breedam, Jonas , van de Wal, Roderik S W , Wang, Yu , Zhao, Chen , Zwinger, Thomas
    Publication 2024-09-01
  • The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica
    par Klose, Ann Kristin , Coulon, Violaine , Pattyn, Frank , Winkelmann, Ricarda
    Publication 2024-09-21
  • Subglacial hydrology modulates basal sliding response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate forcing
    par Kazmierczak, Elise , Sun, Sainan , Coulon, Violaine , Pattyn, Frank
    Publication 2022-10-01
  • SUBGLACIAL CONTROLS ON ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET DYNAMICS:Focus on subglacial hydrology and bed rheology
    par Kazmierczak, Elise
    Publication Faculté des Sciences – Géosciences, Environnement et Société, Bruxelles, Université libre de Bruxelles, 2024-03-15