par Paulis, Emilien ;Sierens, Vivien Denis ;Van Haute, Emilie
Référence ECPR General Conference (26-29 August 2015: Montreal)
Publication Non publié, 2015-08-29
Communication à un colloque
Résumé : Based on an original dataset containing membership figures for 397 parties in 31countries over a period from 1945 to 2014, this paper developed a party-basedexplanatory model of the differences in membership levels and changes over time. Itexamines the effect party age, vote share, governmental participation, and number of competing parties. Our results confirm that membership ratios are overall decreasing, but they introduce nuances across party families. Moreover, our results show that parties with larger shares of the votes and parties in power get larger membership ratios, and that parties gaining votes tend to increase their membership ratios. The model found more contrasted results for party age, with only newer parties associated with membership increase. Finally, the number of competing parties does not influence individual parties’ membership ratios per se, but a diminution of the competition means higher M/E ratios for the remaining parties. These findings question dominant views on party membership trends and call for further investigations at the party level, especially regarding the link between election and membership cycles.