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Blackout PRA based identification of critical initial conditions and contingencies

par Henneaux, Pierre ;Labeau, Pierre-Etienne ;Maun, Jean Claude
Référence 12th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems(June 10-14: Istanbul, Turkey), Proceedings of PMAPS 2012, page (49-54)
Publication Publié, 2012-06

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Résumé :

A blackout, or a undesired major load shedding, can entail major economical major. Therefore, it is crucial to identify most probable scenarios leading to a blackout in order to optimally reduce the risk of blackout. The purpose of this paper is to identify critical initial conditions and critical initiating contingencies (or initiating events) contributing most to the risk of blackout. The methodology used is a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), adapted from dynamic reliability methodologies. It allows to handling the coupling between events in cascading failure and the thermal transient of the grid, induced by these events. This approach was developed on the basis of the analysis of past blackouts. A Monte Carlo code applied on a test grid for the initiation of a blackout (ruled by thermal transients) reveals critical initial conditions and contingencies.