par Lelouchier, Paul Auguste 
Référence Archiv für Meteorologie, Geophysik und Bioklimatologie Serie A, 12, 3, page (350-365)
Publication Publié, 1961-10
Référence Archiv für Meteorologie, Geophysik und Bioklimatologie Serie A, 12, 3, page (350-365)
Publication Publié, 1961-10
Article révisé par les pairs
| Résumé : | The author investigates the bases of a short or medium range pressure forecast, based on autocorrelations (Vialar) and local correlations of pressure as well as on the use of running time means of atmospheric pressure (Grappe). In order to appreciate the degree of quality of a forecast, he introduces the concept of efficiency. This concept is based on the forecast of the sign of the pressure variation. The author points out that the method of autoregressive equations does not lead to an efficient forecast of pressure averages, whilst that of local regression equations, applied to the running means of daily pressure, gives an efficient forecast of pressure averages over a time interval of several days (2 to 5 days). The efficiency of this latter forecast, however, is illusive, this efficiency being a result of the algebraic properties of the running means only. The author notices that the failure of the forecast methods coincides with the lack of autoregressivity of time-series of daily pressure variation. Therefore, it is very unlikely that any method of short or medium range pressure forecast, based on local pressure data, can produce really efficient forecasts if the time series of the first variation of pressure is not autoregressive. © 1961 Springer-Verlag. |
