par Foucart, Renaud 
;Gassner, Marjorie ;Van Haute, Emilie
Référence Annual Conference of the Canadian Political Science Association (CPSA) (June 4-6: Victoria)
Publication Non publié, 2013-06-06
;Gassner, Marjorie ;Van Haute, Emilie Référence Annual Conference of the Canadian Political Science Association (CPSA) (June 4-6: Victoria)
Publication Non publié, 2013-06-06
Communication à un colloque
| Résumé : | This paper shows how decentralized election results can be used to understand patterns of electoral volatility. Comparing two elections, the model provides a lower bound of the share of voters lost by a party, and of the number of new voters that it managed to convince. The paper proposes a typology of electoral results based on the estimated parameters of the model. We argue that the model can be used to better understand the local specificities linked to the personalization of politics, to avoid errors linked to omitting the role of abstention, and that it also provides a simple tool for better during the fact prediction of electoral results. |
