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The contribution of E.C. consumer surveys in forecasting consumer expenditures: An econometric analysis for four major countries

par Praet, Peter ;Vuchelen, Jef
Référence Journal of economic psychology, 5, 2, page (101-124)
Publication Publié, 1984

Article révisé par les pairs

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Résumé :

In this article we investigate the forecasting performance of alternative models of private consumption using the EEC consumer surveys. Two basic conclusions emerge from the study:. (1) in absolute as well as in comparison with a standard economic model, consumption functions incorporating opinion variables perform surprisingly well given the important measurement problems (missing data, qualitative character of the responses, strong collinearity among responses), and. (2) consumers' opinions are helpful guides only in very short-term forecasting (between 0 and 3 quarters). The article extends previous investigations both on the basic characteristics of opinion variables and on their relation with actual economic variables. © 1984.